Project Vesuvius – and the 2014 Hazard.

First uploaded: Dec 22.2013 On Eruption probability.

Last update: Feb 3.2014







Vesuvius is considered one of the World's most dangerous volcanoes. It has errupted over 50 times since the erruption in 79 AD that detroyed the most of Pompeii and the Naples. Today over 3 million people live in the area nearby the volcano. Authorities claim to have an evacuation plan in the case of a future erruption. The last erruption was in 1944, and scientists and other experts agree that the next erruption is seemingly overdue. - It isn't so much a question of 'IF' Vesuvius will errupt,” experts say, “- The question is 'WHEN'?


The problem is the safety of 3 million people. Vesuvius is an explosive volcano of the pyroclastic type, and if Prof. Benedetto de Vivo of the Naples University is right, in a worst case senario the volcano may only give 24-38 hours notice. Then, authorities admit, there is not enough time to evacuate and large numbers of civilians are virtually chancless.


Vesuvius could errupt as early as August 2014

Andrew Bevan is an expert astrologer with over 30 years experience in his field. The last 25 years he has delivered dozens of accurate and well-documented predictions on politics and social affairs, including warnings on seismic activity and volcanic erruptions. He says that material gathered from the observation of similar phenomena and the history of Vesuvius, suggests that the 2nd half of 2014 is vulnerable for a new erruption. Bevan says that the risk level should be raised to Orange or maybe even Red. “Some people are looking for this kind of input and will want to be alerted and have safety margins on their side. As soon as activity is confirmed by empirical data, there is not a moment to waste. But there might not be that much time.”



The aim, Bevan says, is to warn those it may concern to either step aside or stay in a situation of alertness or preparedness. “Regard it like a weather forcast, a traffic warning or of oncoming hazard.” Experts should be monitoring and paying great attention to any signals of warning, he says, and in this way reduce the response time. Lives may be saved and this is the prime concern of everyone involved.


Check the documentary video at Youtube:

Production: www.foundwilly.com


It is the Solar Eclipse on October 23. 2014 that offers the major warning, but planetary configurations rarely act on their own and the Full Moon of Aug 10. 2014 might act as a trigger. If Vesuvius gives a warning prior to the 2nd half of July, we would under the unfortunate circumstances be very fortunate indeed, but from the middle of July something seems to be on the move and seismologists should be paying great attention. It is the days and weeks immediately before and after the Full Moon of August 10. I fear the most, Bevan says.


Science says Vesuvius will errupt again, but they don't know WHEN. There are still many issues regarding the cycles of Nature that Science does not readily understand. By offering my observations on the history of Vesuvius and behaviour of other seismic events, this may allow scientists to recognize signals at an early stage and issue public warnings supported by fact. This will allow reduce the response time and many lives may be saved. Anyone who is genuinely concerned regarding the safety risk of Vesuvius may contact the correct experts, authorities or consider the options. Vesuvius is dangerous. It is important to have a plan that reduces risk and provides safety.




Background material – Links

Please note that authorites below are presented as experts within their own field and capacity, only responsible for their own opinions and work, and do not necessarily support or agree with the work, methodology or conclusions of Andrew Bevan.

Videos:

Anne Maria Nicholsen on Vesuvius, July 200719:38 min

Professor Benedetto de Vivo, Naples University – “There may only be a 24-38 hour prewarning.”

Graham Phillips visits Naples and Pompeii, May 2008 10:05 min

Professor Guiseppe Mastrolorenzo, Vesuvius Observatory – “A Plinanian Erruption can occur at any time.”

Professor Roberto Scandone, University of Roma – “The pyroclastic flow destroys everything in its path.”

Professor Mike Sheridan, University of Buffalo – “There will be warnings as the molten moves.”


Risk assessment of Vesuvius volcano, Aug 201348:32 min

Professor Franco Barberi, University of Roma – A full lecture with breakdown on the Vesuvius Volcano.

Mount Vesuvius Documentary on the Formation and Dangers, Sept 201344:04 min

Including: Michael Sheridan PhD., Dougal Jerram PhD., Nick Petford PhD., Carmen Solana PhD. and more...


Articles:

The History of Vesuvius - Vesuvioinrete, il portale del vulcano Vesuvio.

From Vesuvius to PopoPenn Current, 2001. University of Pennsylvania.


Resources:

Realtime Earthquakes Vesuvius Istituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologi.


Andrew Bevan, 1386 Asker, Norway.

Contact: Email




Project Vesuvius, Contemporary Observations – extracts.

Conducted by Andrew Bevan, Dec. 2013.

Calculations according to Astrocalc, UK, version 6.3, Nov. 2013.

Planetary placements in the provided charts serve soley as the parameters of cosmic cycles as demonstrated in nature, and does not bear reference to any meanings as may be suggested in popular magazines.


Vesuvius Eruption Hazard - anno 2014.

The Solar Eclipse of October 23. 2014, Vesuvius, 21.46 UT.


The Solar Eclipse of Oct 23. 2014 offers the primary warning of an upcoming eruption of the volcano Vesuvius, and when viewed in isolation either the year 2014 or 2015 seems the most likely. This chart displays a collection of parameters that are prominent in charts related to other prior major eruptions of Vesuvius and in the diagrams of other large scale seismic phenomena. The Solar Eclipse occurs in the 1st degree of tropical Scorpio. There was a Solar Eclipse within 1° of this point of the zodiac both in 78 AD, which lead up to the 79 AD erruption, and again in 1631, the year of another major Vesuvius outburst. The Metonic cycle causes New Moons to occur in approximately the same degree of the sky every 19 years. Not all of these New Moons are eclipses, but several eclipses appear to chain together due to the Metonic cycle, and on average a period of 141 years will contain such eclipses before a break of 250 years, before a new period of 141 years. Why don't all eclipses in the 1st degree of Scorpio provide volcanic erruptions? This has to do with the individual qualities of each eclipse, and of great importance also the Saros series these eclipses are a member of, and lastly, how both of these celestial patterns relate to the terrestial location and coordinates of Vesuvius. So with every diagram there is a collection of considerations or coincidental 'triggers' that make up the total picture.



The main feature of the 2014 chart is the planet Uranus and the Moon's South Node culminating in the South in the tropical sign of Aries. Uranus is also found angular in the map of the Solar Eclipse of Oct 24. 78 AD (julian calendar) that preceded the 79 AD eruption. Note that both these lunations were Solar Eclipses, occurring within 1° of one another. An angular Uranus is also found in the Full Moon chart of May 472 AD, relating to the 472 eruption. These charts will follow and be discussed later. Uranus is, according to astrological parameters that planet closest associated with Earthquakes or seismic disturbances due to the distruptive and unstabilizing quality of its nature. The Moon's South Node is one of those two points where the orbit of the Moon around the Earth intersects the ecliptic, the apparent path of the Sun, and signifies weakness, vacuum and the tendency to collapse or cave in. This is occurring in the tropical fire sign Aries. The meaning of the sign may be of secondary importance here, but if we were to examine that point Aries may represent a fountain of primeval origin with impulsive outbursts, and in the current gathering of information the scenario feared the most is those associations it bears to a volcano and pyroclastic explosions.


The eclipse of Oct 23. 2014 occurs in the Northen hemisphere of Vesuvius and is not visable from Italy or Europe, but in that area of the diagram that bears meanings with the land , homeground and Earth itself. Even without the angular Uranus this would add seismic tension to the area at this time, but in a more general way. On the Lower Midheaven we find Mercury, which in itself may not appear to be significant, but similar placements in the charts of other eruptions might indicate that it is acting as an agenting valve toward the outburst. This function is suggested in the charts of the Solar Eclipse on July 21.1906 and the Lunar Eclipse of Feb 09.1944. Mercury was in allignment with the Sun on the day of the eruption on March 18.1944, on April 6.1906, and joined to the New Moon on Aug 13. 79 AD


In the chart for the October 2014 eclipse the superior planet Jupiter is 19° of tropical Leo. This degree was held by the Moon in the map for the 8,8 Richter Scale Earthquake that hit Chile on Feb 27. 2010 and by angular relationship (120°) when China was hit on April 14. 2010. The New Moon of Aug 13. 79 AD occurred in 19° of tropical Leo. The Full Moon of May 8. 472 was at exact 90° angle with 19° Leo. Venus was holding the degree during the Solar Eclipse of June 29. 512 and the Moon's North Node was in 18° Leo in the chart of the Full Moon March 25. 1906. The Solar Eclipse of May 9. 1929 occurred in the 18° of the fixed sign Taurus, and square to 19° Leo. There was a Full Moon in 19° Leo on Feb 9. 1944 prior to the eruption of March 18. when Jupiter held this degree. In conclusion, it appears to be significant!


The New Moon of August 10. 2014, Vesuvius, 18.10 UT.



In my opinion a 2014 eruption could be triggered by the Full Moon of Aug 10. when the luminaries oppose along the horizontal axis of Vesuvius. This lunation occurs in 18° Leo and forms a powerful configuration with the planet Saturn in 18° Scorpio , typically called a T-square. Mercury is within orb of a conjunction with the Sun, and Venus is in 28° Cancer, a degree we find emphasised in the chart for the Solar Eclipse of July 21. 1906 and the Eclipse of Oct 25. 1631.


The Full Moon will rize in the East as the Sun is setting in the Mount Vesuvius region on Aug 10 2014. The happens in 18° Leo and will pick up on the magnitude of Jupiter, who will possess this degree during the Solar Eclipse on Oct 23. The 19th degree of Leo is a hot spot, and this is a way in which celestial pictures come together and spell the action. There should be no doubt that the stress is high and the tension of this lunation may contain crucial impact for those days and weeks immediately before and after this date. Either a general warning should be offered for the period so that civilians may consider alternative with some margin, or seismologist should monitor the volcano with high intensity at this time so that earliest warning can speedly be issued and backed with empirical data.


The Saros Cycle 153, initiating eclipse July 28. 1870



The Solar Eclipse of Oct 23. 2014 is a member of the Saros cycle family 153. According to astrological doctrine from ancient time, the initiating eclipse of a Saros cycle is to bear meaning for future eclipses occurring in this series. The initial eclipse of the Saros cycle 153 occurred on July 28. 1870 at 11.17 UT. When this chart is cast for the latitude and longitude of Vesuvius, this puts the eclipse in the South and ON THE MIDHEAVEN. The 1° Scorpio is ascending on the rational horizon and this brings in the degrees of the Solar eclipses of Oct 24. 78 AD, Oct 25.1631 and Oct 23. 2014.


In the chart for the initiating eclipse of July 28. 1870, notice that Mercury is joined with the luminaries in the South of the chart and that the planet/dwarf planet Pluto is 18° Taurus and holds a 90° angle to 19° Leo, which is tied in with the T-square involving Saturn in 18° Scorpio in the Full Moon chart of Aug 10. 2014.


The Vesuvius Eruption of 79 AD

The Solar Eclipse of October 24. 78 AD, Vesuvius, 13.56 UT.



The Solar Eclipse of Oct 24.78 AD occurs in the final degree of tropical Libra, but within orb of the cluster of eclipses occurring around 1st degree of tropical Scorpio. Uranus is rising in the rational ascendant of this chart. The Solar Eclipse of Oct 24.78 AD is a member of the Saros cycle 83. The chart for the intiating eclipse of this Saros cycle will follow below.


The New Moon of August 13. 79 AD, Vesuvius, 09.44 UT.



The New Moon of Aug 13. 79 AD occurs in 19° Leo in conjunction with the planet Mercury and in Upper Midheaven of Vesuvius. The Solar Eclipse of Oct 24. 78 AD is rising in the chart and in a 90° angle with the Meridian. Mars is in 5° of tropical Aries in this chart, which is conjunct the position it held in the Uranus ingress to Capricorn on Dec 2. 1988, which coincided with a series of documented earthquakes. This was the focal point held by stationary Mercury upon the great earthquake of San Francisco on April 18.1906 .


The Saros Cycle 83, initiating eclipse May 4. 211 BC



The Saros cycle 83 was initiated on May 4.211 BC at 22.22 U.T. The 1st degree of Scorpio is culimating in this chart, similar to the degree found rising in chart initiating eclipse of Saros cycle 153 and it is the degree of the Solar eclipse on October 23. 2014.The initiating eclipse of Saros cycle 153 is more tightly related to an angle, as it was on the Midheaven of Vesuvius, but the 'Mother' of Saros cycle 83, relating to the pyroclastic erruption in 79 AD, occurs in the 4th house and in the north of the chart, as is more propper for matters of the Earth and similar to the location of the Solar eclipse of Oct. 23 2014. Notice the role played by Venus in this chart, who is disposer of the eclipse and ruler of the 4th house and who is in a tight T-square involving Jupiter and an opposition to the planet Uranus. A comparable interplay may be found in the initiating chart of the Saros cycle 153 between, Saturn, who is ruler of the 4th house, and planets Uranus, Jupiter and/or Neptune.


My purpose is to point out some close familarities between significant charts and time maps, and in conclusion I believe experts within various fields and responsiblities should be on the alert and working most tightly together within the timeframes specified at the beginning of this article; to safeguard the lives of civilians by raising the levels of preparedness and providing some additional options of escape. With the correct response thousands of civilian lives may be provided additional security. Experts do not know 'WHEN' the next erruption will occur. My study attempts to cast light on some of the factors relevant to the history of Vesuvius and behaviour of seismic phenomena that are important to understanding this picture and the rhythms of Nature.


Andrew Bevan, 1386 Asker, Norway.

Contact: Email



Relevant projects and acheivements.

Documented work on seismic activity - Andrew Bevan, 1988 - 2013.

1988: Calculates afterquake danger for Armenia, December 7. 1988

1988: Predicts largest Earthquake in Norway for 50 years to exact date, Jan 23. 1989

1989: Predicts 7,3 Richter San Francisco earthquake Oct 18. 1989

1990: Warns 7,6 Richter earthquake hitting Iran on June 20. 1990, Phillippines July 15. 1990.

1992: Warns the January eruption of Etna.

1999: Etna hit by largest eruption for decade on keydates due Italy, September 28.1999.

2003: Pinpoints center of Sumatra Tsunami earthquake due December 26. 2004

2005: The Guardian refers to work on the Sumatra Tsunami

2005: April eclipse examples tension over Italy

2007: Lunar eclipse of March stirrs Stromboli, Italy.

2008: Predicts Iceland eruption for early 2010.

2010: Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, erupts March 2010.

2010: From Haiti to Chile, China and Eyjafjallajö on Iceland;kull

2011: Japan on watch prior 8,8R of March 11. 2011.



Sources: www.bevan.no / www.astronor.com